Last November, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen agreed to a wager with the exiled opposition leader Sam Rainsy. Broadly speaking, the understanding was that if, on the one hand, by March 3, the government hadn’t released Kem Sokha, president of the now-dissolved main opposition party, then Hun Sen should resign after 35 years in power, while, on the other hand, if Kem Sokha is released, then Sam Rainsy will return to Cambodia after more than three years in exile to face imprisonment.
But with memories of that wager now fading – most analysts think neither side would ever keep to the conditions, anyway – Sam Rainsy still promises to make an momentous return to Cambodia, an event, he thinks, that will galvanize opposition against Hun Sen’s one-party rule.
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